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Goldman Sachs revises three months oil price forecast

2017-07-05 | 10pm

As OPEC is working hard to minimize inventories across the globe, Goldman Sachs has reduced its three-month price forecast for WTI from US$55 to US$47.50 a barrel after observing output gains in Libya and Nigeria. The Goldman analysts duo, Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie stated in a report, “This threatens to close the window of time for stocks to normalize before OPEC cuts end and raises the concerns that OPEC will then ramp up production to defend market share.” On the other hand, a week ago another team of Goldman analysts which were the bank’s European energy team stated that the selloff in energy stocks would be an opportunity for buyers, whereas the current low prices are most probably unsustainable in the long run. According to the last week note, the oil prices dropped to a ten-month low. According to week’s report, the investment bank thinks that output gains in production-cut-exempt Libya and Nigeria could derail the inventory drop expected in the third quarter this year. Goldman further added, “The approach adopted so far by OPEC, akin to a central bank, has ultimately proved self-defeating by cutting too little but reassuring too much.” Although OPEC may be mulling over deeper oil production cuts but they will not make that decision in hurry. Next month, there will be meeting of the panel monitoring the cuts. On the other hand, UAE Energy Minister denies about any such mulling. Recently a survey conducted by the Dallas Fed Energy for the second quarter has shown that majority of executives from 112 oil and gas firms—67 percent are expecting the oil market to regain by  2018 or sooner, whereas third saying it will happen by 2019. Approximately, eleven percent are expecting the balance to happen by the second half of 2017. On Thursday, after the last week’s selloff, oil prices hit a two-week high. The EIA data depicts that there is deduction of U.S. weekly crude oil production from 9.350 million to 9.250 million bpd in this week. .